Preparing the U.S.-Japan Alliance for a New Security Environment

 

2nd IFPA-JIIA Workshop
April 8-9, 2002

JIIA Headquarters
Tokyo, Japan

Agenda

Timeframe for analysis: 10-15 years

Monday, April 8
Session 1: Security Dynamics in the Aftermath of September 11
Synopsis: The geopolitical picture of global and regional security transformed virtually overnight in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks. In a dramatic about face, the United States engaged great powers (Russia and China) and pivotal states (Pakistan, India, and Uzbekistan) in a global effort to counter terrorism. Japan for its part has reinvigorated debates about its future security role. Indeed, the dispatch of Japanese naval forces for logistics support marks a major departure in Tokyo's defense policy since World War II. Making sense of the fluid and often volatile developments in the months (perhaps even years) to come will be critical for any policy maker.

1. Emerging Geopolitical Dynamics: A New "New World Order"?
· U.S.-Russian relations: an emerging entente?
· Sino-American relations: abandoning strategic competition?
· Sino-Russian relations: "strategic cooperation" still relevant?
· Central Asia: a new regional pivot?

 

2. Regional Dynamics in the Asia-Pacific
· U.S. and regional perspectives on February 2002 presidential visit to Northeast Asia
· "Axis of Evil:" Korean Peninsula back center-stage?
· The U.S.-Japan Alliance: set on a new course?
· Japan "shows the flag:" implications for regional and extra-regional contingencies
· Where does Northeast Asia fit in the new strategic picture?

 

3. Coping with the Emergence of New Asymmetric Threats
· Combating global terrorism: will there ever be an "end state?" What does it mean for the alliance?
· Confronting the threat of weapons of mass destruction/disruption
· Homeland defense initiatives in the United States (and their potential relevance to Japan)
· Defending forward presence in Northeast Asia against asymmetric threats

 

Session 2: America's Emerging Security/Defense Strategy in Asia
Synopsis: President George Bush promised to undertake a fundamental shakeup of the defense establishment. Accordingly, the Pentagon embarked on an extensive defense review process to adapt to a new strategic direction. An important component of the defense reform is a refocus on alliance relationships in the Asia-Pacific. This shift in strategic focus will have far reaching implications for U.S. forward basing in the region, force structure, modernization, and military capabilities.

 

1. The 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review
· America's new threat perceptions, defense priorities, and implications
· The "Asia first" focus: real or rhetorical?
· The capabilities-based approach vs. threat-based approach
· Meeting access-denial challenges: forward basing issues
· Force structure issues: deploying standing joint task forces to Asia

 

2. Implications for the United States in Northeast Asia
· A U.S. alliance-based regional architecture?
· Reconfiguring American forward-deployed forces in the region
· Modernizing the force to cope with new roles and missions
· Linkage to Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and regional deterrence

 

Session 3: Japan's Emerging Security Policy
Synopsis: While the North Korean ballistic missiles threat has somewhat abated, Japan remains acutely aware of the uncertainties of the security environment in Northeast Asia. Japan is eyeing China's rising power with increasing wariness. There are now palpable shifts in Japan's strategic culture that the September 11 attacks further energized. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi engineered a major political push to allow the possible deployment of Japanese naval forces for the first time since World War II. How these political maneuvers will impact Japan's future security role and the alliance are critical developments that require further scrutiny.

 

1. Japan's Security Policy
· New and familiar threat perceptions
· Strategic culture: the rise of domestic support for greater security role
· Party politics and the security policy debate

 

2. Reviewing the Scope of Japan's Legal Framework on Security Issues
· The constitution and the right of collective self-defense
· The U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty
· The Defense Guidelines and enabling legislations

 

3. Japan's Defense Strategy
· Identifying key operational priorities in the 2001 Defense White Paper
· Evaluating Japan's key modernization programs
· Can Japan pull its weight in the context of military contingencies?
a. Korean Peninsula crisis
b. Situations in areas surrounding Japan
c. Extra-regional crisis

continued...