Among the threats facing the United States are short-range ballistic missiles launched from vessels such as freighters, tankers, or container ships off our shores to detonate a warhead that could have catastrophic Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) consequences for the United States. After discussing the potential for a successful EMP attack, this report suggests what can (and should) be done to counter such an attack by using existing and near-term missile defense capabilities, beginning immediately.

This report is based on extensive independent research conducted by IFPA on the multifaceted challenges posed by illicit trafficking and efforts to combat it; the report also incorporates discussions held at a high-level international workshop on the topic organized by IFPA and GCSP in Geneva, Switzerland, in September 2009.

This guide is based on information contained in the 2009 Independent Working Group Report entitled Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century. The purpose of the guide is to address the most often asked questions and to provide information about missile defense.

The many large-scale natural disasters and ambitious nation-building projects over the last several years call attention to the potential value of deploying national military assets in support of disaster relief and recovery efforts, as well as to the challenges that disaster relief agencies and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) face when working closely with the military. Both U.S. and Japanese policy makers understand that leveraging military resources during a disaster is an opportunity to save lives and property, to help maintain stability and prosperity in affected nations, and to promote the allies’ diplomatic interests, but it must be done carefully. Together with a handful of other key countries, the United States and Japan can help form a valuable crisis core group that cooperates in support of large-scale, UN-led disaster relief operations, but effective civil-military coordination is essential to making this work. The In Times of Crisis project was a multi-year joint effort of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA) and the Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), involving practitioners and policy makers from both countries, the United Nations, and NGOs through interviews and bilateral workshops. This monograph explains the team’s findings and ways to improve the allies’ ability to effectively pool civilian and military resources and to respond together (bilaterally or as part of a broader coalition) in support of host nations and international relief agencies to speed recovery in times of crisis.

North Korea's recent nuclear test is only the latest in a series of moves by Pyongyang that seem directed at “shaping a new diplomatic framework” for the Korean Peninsula, rejecting the Six-Party process and returning to its traditional insistence on bilateral talks with the United States to end the Korean War.  These developments illustrate the strong linkages between North Korean denuclearization and peace regime building on the Korean Peninsula (i.e., trying to institute a political solution to the Korean War beyond just a military armistice).  Working with partners in South Korea, the United States, and China, IFPA is in the middle of a three-year project exploring peace regime building on the Korean Peninsula in ways that support and facilitate the denuclearization objectives of the Six-Party Talks; this interim report describes the results of over a year’s worth of interviews, research, and a U.S.-South Korea bilateral workshop, up to and including North Korea’s May 2009 nuclear test.

North Korea’s missile/rocket launch over Japan and maritime skirmishes in the South China Sea between the United States and China place new burdens on the U.S.-Japan security relationship. For more than two generations the United States has provided a security guarantee to Japan that is backed by the U.S. nuclear capability. The future of this extended deterrence relationship is the focus of this report. It addresses evolving discussion about deterrence in Japan as well as the United States and examines the conditions under which Japan might consider new approaches to assuring its future security.

Among the potentially contentious issues requiring focused attention and innovative thinking by the Obama administration are those relating to the future of U.S. deterrence planning. Members of the administration are already on record as favoring a significant unilateral reduction in U.S. nuclear weapons. Some are calling for the ratification of a Comprehensive (Nuclear) Test Ban Treaty; others are questioning proposals to update the U.S. nuclear infrastructure and modernize the U.S. nuclear warhead inventory to make American deterrent forces better able to meet and counter legacy and emerging deterrence threats and challenges. This paper provides an assessment of the future of U.S. nuclear planning and offers new ideas about deterrence in the dramatically changed twenty-first-century security planning environment.

This report, the product of a year-long study effort, has been prepared as a contribution to the discussion about the future role of the United States in space. It surveys the current status of U.S. space activities and draws comparisons with other countries that have developed space programs in recent decades. It projects major trends into a ten- to twenty-year timeframe to identify factors that may have important positive or negative implications for the position of the United States relative to other nations in the next decade. Because of the inherently dual-use nature of space technology and the growing role of the commercial sector, this net assessment takes a broad view of space, encompassing space technologies for military uses and for commercial purposes. It underscores the mutually important role of space in U.S. national security and in the U.S. economy.

This report provides an assessment of missile defense requirements beyond the limited ground-based system currently being deployed, together with opportunities to benefit from existing and new technologies. It presents proven technology options that should form the basis for deployment of an innovative missile defense that draws upon the legacy of technologies developed during the Strategic Defense Initiative program of the Reagan administration and the first Bush administration. The report lays out the necessary vision to exploit existing and future technologies, with space as an indispensable part of missile defense.

This study focuses on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR). It explores ways to make civil-military cooperation more effective in supporting a whole-of-government strategy for addressing twenty-first century threats. It is designed to assist those responsible for the management of large-scale HA/DR efforts achieve a greater unity of effort and division of labor among the diverse civilian and military, national and international, and public and private sector entities to execute such operations. It identifies critical capabilities and key operational challenges; reviews existing and proposed cooperative mechanisms to facilitate disaster relief planning, training, and implementation; and examines several recent cases of disaster response for lessons learned.

We need only ponder the problems posed by an Iran without nuclear weapons to begin to assess the challenges of an Iran in possession of an operational nuclear weapons capability. Considering the issue from the perspective of three different heuristic models of Iran’s proliferation—a defensive Iran, an aggressive Iran, and an unstable Iran—this report assesses the political, strategic, and operational implications of Iran’s attainment of a nuclear weapons capability. It assumes that absent strong, unified, multilateral action to impose a strict sanctions regime, a United Nations Security Council-approved embargo, or other tightly enforced trade and financial restrictions, current policies will not suffice to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state.

This 2008 monograph presents the findings of a three-year multilateral research project that explores ways to bridge differences among the parties and to develop a common approach to North Korean nuclearization. It explores the strengths and weaknesses of the six-party process and offers practical solutions to the numerous implementation challenges regarding nuclear dismantlement and verification, and coordinated economic assistance and investment.

IFPA completed this report as part of an ongoing study of radical Islam and its implications for the Long War against terrorism. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the ideological underpinnings of radical Islam and how these ideologies seem to be fueling terrorist and insurgent activities, including suicide bombing operations and other asymmetric strategies. Emphasis is placed on the effect of these activities in U.S. Central Command’s (USCENTCOM’s) area of responsibility, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan. This study also includes updated analyses and recommendations derived from a workshop on suicide bombers held in support of USCENTCOM earlier in 2006.

Policy coordination with Japan regarding North Korea is always important for U.S. policy makers, given the persistent security challenges posed by the DPRK and the lack of progress on North Korean denuclearization. The situation is further complicated by the oftentimes conflicting interests of other key regional players (such as China and South Korea) regarding priorities and policy approaches vis-à-vis the North.  This report explores how Japan's policy toward North Korea has evolved over time, and it describes how domestic politics and bureaucratic organization affect current Japanese policy making in this area. U.S.-Japan policy coordination toward North Korea is discussed, and the implications of all of these factors are examined with policy recommendations to strengthen alliance cooperation.

This volume explores Bulgaria’s progress in the realms of economic and political reform, as well as its overall strategic and foreign policy priorities, within the context of its desires to contribute as a new NATO member, to join the European Union, and to play a leading role within and beyond Southeast Europe. The point of departure was the Bulgaria in Europe conference, organized by the Kokkalis Program on Southeast and East-Central Europe at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government and by the Kokkalis Foundation in Athens, Greece, on July 15, 2002, in Sophia, Bulgaria. Contributors include Bulgaria’s former president, its deputy prime minister, its deputy foreign minister, and distinguished experts from Europe and the United States.

One of the more successful innovations in the area of U.S.-Japan and U.S.-South Korea alliance management was the establishment of the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG) for developing common policies toward North Korea. The three countries can learn from the TCOG and use other diplomatic and military planning tools to improve the way that they prepare for and respond to complex contingencies, such as a large-scale natural disaster, a regional or global epidemic, or the adverse affects of a failing nation-state. This monograph evaluates these tools and identifies ways that they can be better integrated to strengthen the alliance relationships and to enhance regional capacity in the areas of crisis and consequence management. The book includes the first comprehensive study of the TCOG from the perspective of the three nations’ participants, as well as a detailed analysis of how they contributed to the unprecedented multilateral response to the 2004 South Asian tsunami disaster.

This monograph, the result of a project completed in 2004, examines the military and operational requirements that could be anticipated to drive U.S. security planning for operations in Central Asia and adjacent regions over the next ten to twenty years.

Report on a high-level conference convened April 28–29, 2009, by the Defense Analysis Institute of the Hellenic Ministry of National Defense, the Konstantinos G. Karamanlis Foundation, and the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA) with official NATO sponsorship. As NATO marks its sixtieth anniversary, it faces enduring questions about strategic focus, operational priorities, military requirements, and collaborative ties with partner nations and other international institutions. Some of these questions were addressed at the April 2009 NATO summit in Strasbourg-Kehl, but a broader and ongoing dialogue will be essential as the Alliance moves forward in the years ahead; this conference addressed and contributed to that process.

Report of an October 2008 conference sponsored by the Stanley Foundation, the National Committee on North Korea, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, and the Chinese Arms Control and Disarmament Association.

This report summarizes and elaborates upon discussions held at an IFPA workshop by the same name held on July 30, 2008, and organized in support of GEN Bantz Craddock, USA, then SACEUR and commander of USEUCOM.  The report discusses emerging Allied concerns over a more assertive Russian security posture, and discusses potential opportunities for USEUCOM-led security cooperation in the greater Black Sea and Caucasus region as a way to enhance stability.  Against the backdrop of the Russian-Georgian conflict (which erupted shortly after the workshop was held), the report also offers recommendations for appropriate U.S. and Allied responses. 

This report analyzes the perspectives of NATO and SHAPE officials on the proper scope, focus, and timing of future adjustments to the Alliance’s 1999 Strategic Concept to bring it into closer accord with current and emerging strategic trends and priorities.  The report also evaluates potential revisions to NATO’s deterrence posture (including with respect to forward-deployed nuclear weapons), and examines emerging requirements for Allied counter-proliferation planning, “out-of-area” missions (such as Afghanistan ), and civil-military coordination to protect Allied territory and critical infrastructure.  Based on these assessments, recommendations are made for U.S. European Command (USEUCOM) planning priorities.     

IFPA completed and distributed this summary report on a January 2007 workshop organized in support of U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM).The focus of the workshop was a discussion of the ideological roots of Islamist extremism as a basis for countering such ideology. In addition, it identified and assessed the elements of a national strategy to defeat radical Islamist threats and addressed measures to promote democratization in the region. Attendees at the workshop ncluded experts and scholars specializing in various aspects of Islamic extremism, as well as USCENTCOM Deputy Commander VADM Dave Nichols, other senior command representatives, and high- ranking U.S. officials.

This 2007 report, based in part on the results of a 2006 IFPA-led multilateral workshop held in Tokyo, Japan, reviews current international efforts to mitigate the potentially devastating effect of a pandemic influenza, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. It also examines the national and military planning efforts of the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea in addressing this emerging crisis, and it explores options for improved multilateral cooperation in disaster response planning.

Final conference report, 2007.

Report of a workshop held on February 17, 2006,in Honolulu, Hawaii. Government officials and foreign-policy experts from the United States, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Australia gathered for a one-day workshop to discuss the six-party talks and to explore options for building regional capacity to implement a denuclearization agreement with North Korea, if and when one is concluded.

This report is based on a workshop of the same title convened by the Institute on February 9, 2006, in Washington, D.C., with the generous support of the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation. It assesses the extent to which Cold War lessons in the struggle against Communism have relevance to the war against radical Salafist ideologies and to efforts to establish democracies in the wider Muslim world. The report examines the prospects for democracy in the area spanning North Africa, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Both the workshop and the report contributed to IFPA's ongoing research focused on post-conflict reconstruction and stability operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and, at the same time, to efforts to inform and help shape U.S. government democratization efforts and public diplomacy strategies.